The execution layer for prediction markets.
You bring the probability. Calibrade makes sure you don't leak it.
Your model finds the edge. Then stale signals, oversized bets, and fee-blind fills quietly give it back. Calibrade sits between your probabilities and the order book and enforces the rules you set — on every single order.
Built by a trader who caught his own bot trading on 16-hour-stale edges.
The model was fine. The execution wasn't. Signals computed in the morning were still being acted on at the evening close — long after the book had moved. Every guard in Calibrade exists because of a leak like that one: real, found in the logs, and measured before it was fixed.
Five guards between your probability and the book.
Each one closes a specific way edge leaks between "my model says 0.71" and "my order filled."
Signal freshness caps
Every signal carries a timestamp and a max age you define. Past the cap, it can't be traded — period. No order goes out on a probability the market has already outrun.
Live-edge re-verification
At order time — not signal time — Calibrade pulls the live book and re-computes your edge net of fees. If the edge you thought you had is gone, the order is.
Fractional Kelly with hard limits
Position sizes follow fractional Kelly from your own probability and bankroll, then get clamped by absolute caps you set per market, per day, and overall. Conviction never overrides the ceiling.
Circuit breakers
Daily loss limits, consecutive-loss halts, and anomaly stops that take the system offline automatically — and stay tripped until you reset them on purpose.
Calibration analytics
Net-of-fees P&L, slippage measured as intended-vs-realized edge, and Brier scores with reliability curves on your own probabilities. Not a dashboard that flatters you — a record of whether your numbers and your fills are actually any good.
What Calibrade will never sell you.
This is a tool, and only a tool. The probabilities, the capital, and the API key are yours.
Signals or picks
Calibrade never tells you what to trade or which side to take. If you don't have your own probabilities, this isn't your product yet.
Performance promises
No projected returns, no win rates, no backtested hype. Discipline reduces self-inflicted leaks; it does not create edge or guarantee profit.
Custody of your funds
You connect your own Kalshi API key with your own limits. Your capital stays in your account, under your control.
Stop donating your edge back to the book.
Join the waitlist for early access. Kalshi support first; more venues later.